How forecasts are doing
Research forecasts are measured after three closed candles. Trade calls stay paused while we collect reliable evidence.
Older reconstructed signal study · 24 Sep 2026
Across 12 Kraken USD markets and four chart timeframes, requiring a later confirming candle left 285 historical setups. The price moved in the marked direction three candles later in 134 of 284 non-flat cases (47.2%). Of the 122 setups that reached a target or stop within 12 candles, 35 reached the target first and 87 reached the stop first; 163 reached neither.
These are reconstructed past examples, separate from the verified shadow forecasts above. Neither establishes a reliable trading advantage. Trade alerts remain paused. See detailed research context.
Accuracy by timeframe
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BTC live microstructure
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Recent research forecasts
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